Kamis, 25 September 2014

Way to Profit...Part 4

kebalikan arah dari part 3 ke part 2 ke part 1,gampang toh boss? hehehe....

Selasa, 23 September 2014

Senin, 22 September 2014

Jumat, 19 September 2014

Scotland referendum – final Yougov POLL: 46 Yes / 54 No

The final Yougov POLL: 46 Yes / 54 No - •This is NOT an exit poll - •GBP/USD higher, through 1.6400 to 1.6458 now .september19,2014 05.15 WIB.sumber; http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=504890

Kamis, 18 September 2014

Scotland Votes on Independence

The pound strengthened versus the dollar as the Scottish electorate voted on whether to end its three-century-old union with the U.K.
Sterling appreciated versus most of 16 major peers as opinion polls suggested the Scottish race is too close to call. Gauges of future price swings for the U.K. currency have surged in recent weeks as investors grappled with the implications of a potential “yes” vote, while options on the pound versus the euro yesterday were the most bearish since 2008. U.K. government bonds declined, pushing the 10-year yield to a six-week high.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if we do see sterling firming up,” said Ian Stannard, head of European foreign-exchange strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. “The recovery over the past week following some sharp declines has been a corrective move, which is consistent with a cautious approach as we go into the vote. I expect some volatility overnight as the results come in, purely by the nature of which they are going to be released region by region, as it doesn’t look like there are going to be any large-scale exit polls.”
The pound gained 0.2 percent to $1.6308 at 10:47 a.m. London time after climbing to $1.6358 yesterday, the most since Sept. 4. The U.K. currency appreciated 0.1 percent to 78.97 pence per euro after touching to 78.81 pence, the strongest level since July 23.
Overnight volatility for the pound versus the dollar rose to as much as 33 percent, the highest level since May 7, 2010, the day after the last general election, which resulted in a hung parliament and led to a coalition government.

Dollar Comparison

Sterling strengthened 0.6 percent in the past month, according to Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which track 10 developed-nation currencies. The euro dropped 0.7 percent, while the dollar gained 3.5 percent.
Benchmark 10-year gilt yields rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.54 percent, having touched 2.56 percent, the highest level since Aug. 6. The 2.75 percent bond maturing in September 2024 fell 0.23, or 2.3 pounds per 1,000-pound face amount, to 101.810.
Gilts returned 6.5 percent this year through yesterday, Bloomberg World Bond Indexes show. German securities also gained 6.5 percent, while U.S. Treasuries earned 3.1 percent.sumber; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/pound-advances-versus-dollar-as-scots-independence-vote-begins.html

ECB allots €82.6 billion in first targeted longer-term refinancing operation

Banks take up €82.6 billion in first of eight TLTROs
Programme supports lending to the real economy
Part of package of ECB measures that will have sizeable impact on ECB’s balance sheet

The European Central Bank has today allotted €82.6 billion to 255 counterparties in the first of eight targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) to be conducted between September 2014 and June 2016. The programme is designed to enhance the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism by supporting bank lending to the real economy.
In order to participate in the tender that was announced on 16 September, credit institutions had to express their interest and send completed reporting templates by 28 August. A total of 382 entities were eligible to bid in the first TLTRO, representing, either directly or indirectly, 1372 credit institutions. Additional counterparties that intend to participate in the second TLTRO in December will have to send completed reporting templates by 20 November 2014, 3.30 p.m. CET.
The second TLTRO, as previously communicated, will be announced on 9 December and allotted on 11 December.
In the first two tenders, banks and groups of banks are entitled to an initial borrowing allowance equal to 7% of the total amount of their loans to the euro area non-financial private sector, excluding loans to households for house purchase, outstanding on 30 April 2014. Therefore, eligible banks who have not reached their initial allowance limit in the first TLTRO will be able to increase their initial borrowing amount up to that limit in the second TLTRO.
Thereafter, banks will be able to apply for additional funding, depending on the evolution of their lending activities against a specific benchmark.
The TLTROs, first announced on 5 June, together with measures announced on 4 September related to the purchase of non-financial private sector assets, will have a sizeable impact on the ECB’s balance sheet.sumber; http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2014/html/pr140918_1.en.html

You Need to Know about Next Week's 3 Key Events

What You Need to Know about Next Week's 3 Key Events

After a relative slow week following the announcement of the ECB's new initiatives and the US jobs data, the week ahead is chock full of key events. There are three in particular that can shape the larger investment climate. They are the FOMC meeting, the launch of the ECB's Targeted Long-Term Repo Operation (TLTRO), and the referendum on Scottish Independence.

I

The key issue around the FOMC meeting is the susceptibility of the forward guidance to change now that QE is drawing to a close. In particular, there are two elements that are being debated. First, in July, the FOMC statement cited the "significant under-utilization of labor resources." Is this still a fair characteristic of the labor market? The statement was issued on July 30. There have been two monthly cycles of employment data since. Taken as a whole, the data show continued improvement, though no acceleration. The labor market is healing, but it still does not appear to be in robust health.

Indeed, there is some risk that the pace of improvement slows. Non-farm payrolls peaked in April (304k) and have been down two consecutive months (July and August). While it is well-appreciated that August's initial estimate is often revised higher, what is less well recognized is that in six of the past nine years, jobs growth in September is lower than in August.

Weekly initial jobless claims put in their cyclical low (thus far) in mid-July. They have been gradually trending higher, and last week moved above the 26-week moving average for the first time since early May.

Since Yellen's discussion at Jackson Hole, more economists are talking about pent-up wage deflation. It is the idea that during the contraction, nominal wages did not fall as much as they "should" have to clear the market. The implication is that the lack of wage pressure now reflects that wages were too high previously. In turn, this means that the present lack of wage pressure should not be confused with the degree of tightness in the labor market.

At the same time, the fact that wages are sticky in both directions is consistent with a non-economic hypothesis about wages. Simply, even if crudely, put, wages reflect the relative power of the employee and employer. Despite the apparent heightened concern about the concentration of wealth and income and the framing of the of issue and debate by Picketty, it appears to have intensified in recent years. The social product (GDP) is growing slower, but the elite's share has grown. This is clear from the continued divergence of wages and profits, and the increased wealth in absolute and relative terms since the end of the Great Financial Crisis.

The second part of the Fed's statement that will be closely watched is the reference that rates can remain low for a "considerable time" after QE ends. This has been a contentious issue for a number of regional Fed presidents. Many economists look for this to be dropped in the statement that will be released at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on September 17. If it is dropped, the market will quickly conclude that a rate hike has indeed been brought forward. The idea would be a Q1 15 hike instead of mid-year. This would likely see an increase in short-term yields and a bearish flattening of the yield curve. It would likely spur a dollar advance.

Dropping or modifying this forward guidance is necessary for the gradual evolution of the economy and Fed policy. This is to suggest that there are a number of reasons why the FOMC would want to alter its language, and signaling a Q1 15 rate hike is not likely to be one of them. If "considerable period" is dropped, Yellen is likely to use her press conference to drive home this point.

A client survey conducted by a larger investment bank, and reported in the media, found that 30% expect "significant under-utilization" phrase to be dropping with the September statement. Another 26% expected it to be dropped in October. The "considerable time" phrase is expected to be dropped by 19% in September and 26% in October. The December meeting was picked by 44% of the respondents. This expectation seems to be more relaxed than market participants.

The ECB launches the TLTRO facility, and the key issue is the extent of the participation. The latest ECB rate cut that pushed the repo rate to 5 bp lowered the cost of borrowing from the TLTRO to 15 bp. The aggregate amount that can be borrowed is a function of the banks' loan book. Such calculations project a maximum borrowing of the first phase of the TLTRO (September and December) of about 400 bln euros.

The naive assumption is that banks will borrow 200 bln at each of the two opportunities. We suspect that the takedown on September 18 will likely be considerably less. Unlike the LTROs, we suspect that there may be a stigma attached to the TLTRO borrowings. The larger and healthier banks may see a beneficial result to not being seen eating again from the public trough. In addition, prudence suggests that even if one wanted/needed to participate, December might be a better opportunity. There is a small chance, though above zero that if the takedown is small next week, the rules may be more favorably tweaked.

Some banks, especially it appears French and Italian banks, have been slower to pay back the LTRO funds. They may choose to replace the 1% older funding with the 15 bp of the TLTRO. We also note that there is no penalty for not using the TLTRO funds to boost lending to businesses and households, which is the facility's intent. Banks would have to repay the new funds after two years rather than four.

There appears to be many considerations going into the ECB's ABS program, which Draghi committed to without providing any substantive details. The stronger the participation in the TLTRO, it would favor more restrictive ABS/covered bond "modalities." Draghi seemed to suggest that ECB wanted its balance sheet to return to it high water mark, which requires about more than one trillion euros, to allow for the continued repayment of the LTRO.

Strong participation in the TLTRO could see the euro trade higher and could underpin European peripheral bonds. Anticipation that banks will seek to minimize maturity mismatches may be a factor behind that rally in 2-year bond prices that have driven the yield of many eurozone members below zero. Weak participation will likely see yields bounce back.

Separately, the Swiss National Bank also meets on September 18. The euro was threatening the CHF1.20 floor the SNB had set when official comments indicated that it would not rule of the adoption of negative interest rates. The euro moved further away from the floor, which seems to reduce the risk of negative rates this week. The SNB successfully got the market to do the heavy lifting with inexpensive verbal intervention. Nevertheless, given that deflation forces continue to grip the Swiss economy, and the pressure on the euro has intensified, the risk of negative Swiss rates still seems like a potent and credible threat. We note that the EuroSwiss futures contracts (3-month CHF interest rates) imply negative rates for the next two years.

III

The Scottish Referendum was hardly more than a minor risk event on most investors’ radar screens until a single poll showed the independents with a slight lead. Sterling fell sharply. Indeed, it gapped lower, and although sterling finished the week near its highs, the gap was not closed. The economic shock that a “yes” vote would have is thought to hurt cut UK growth and postpone the first BOE rate hike.

To be sure, if Scotland votes for independence, it will not take place immediately. To the contrary, the next eighteen months will feature intense negotiations over various economic issues such as debt, currency regime, oil ownership, as well as political issues like the placement of the UK Trident nuclear submarines based on Scotland’s west coast. The UK is scheduled to hold national elections next May. Should a Scotland that will be independent in a year later vote in the UK elections?

We suspect the negative immediate impact on the UK economy is exaggerated, and the 12-cent decline in sterling since mid-July provides some stimulus. A “yes” vote would send sterling down further. We do not see why this would delay a BOE rate hike that we have been consistently expecting in Q1 2015. If anything sterling depreciation boosts the risks of inflation that two MPC members already anticipate (hence their dissents in July favoring an immediate rate hike), and makes it more likely others would join them.

Much ink has been spilled on the impact of independence on Scotland. The kind of currency regime would it have has been particularly heated. This hardly matters for international investors. And independent Scotland, even if it preserves its territorial integrity (Shetland and Orkney, which would ostensibly have claims on much of the North Sea oil, could chose not to be part of an independent Scotland by either staying with the UK or forming their own country. The voting results from this region will also be important to monitor) would not have many attractive investment opportunities. It would be another small, likely indebted, weak country who will have to go through an ascension process to join the EU.

Some observers argue that a Scotland that uses sterling or adopts the euro, would not be truly independent. While we recognize that having its own currency would be one expression of (monetary) sovereignty, we think there is a romantic notion of sovereignty in much of the discussions, and that many do not appreciate that extent the extent to which a small country next to a large country, or bloc, have real limits on their sovereignty whether or not they have their own currency.

Is not Germany and France sovereign, even though they do not have the euro printing press? Sovereign Denmark chose not to join EMU, but it kept its currency in a tight band against the euro. Its monetary policy has one goal: maintain the tight currency link. Switzerland jealously guards its sovereignty, refusing to join the EU, EMU and NATO. Yet, it has put a cap in place on the Swiss franc against the euro. Cannot a sovereign voluntarily limit its own degrees of freedom and still be sovereign?

Mexico and Canada are sovereign. They have their own currencies and both have explored some degrees of freedom from US monetary policy. However, these are very limited, and the fact of the matter is that when the US, which absorbs the bulk of their exports, sneezes they still catch cold. The vast majority of Mexico’s banking assets are at foreign banks.

A small “no” victory, which seems like the most likely outcome, will prevent the sentiment from return fully to status quo ante. Many will play up parallels to Quebec,which for a period independence was a recurring threat. However, the terms of this referendum, allowing a simple majority to carry the day, with sixteen-year-olds eligible to vote, while Scots living outside of Scotland cannot, are unlikely to be repeated. The additional devolution promised by the major parties in London may also absorb some of the angst.

On a victory for the unionist “no” vote, we expect sterling to bounce toward $1.65-$1.66. This is likely to be supported by a rise short-term UK rates, as the market belatedly gives greater heed to BOE Governor Carney’s comments from last week, suggesting Q1 rate hike expectations were appropriate. The sharp rise in sterling’s implied volatility would also likely ease.

Sumber; http://www.marctomarket.com/2014/09/what-you-need-to-know-about-next-weeks.html

Rabu, 17 September 2014

USA rates history

KURS RUPIAH/US$, Analis Buat 2 Skenario

Dua skenario rupiah tersebut adalah:
Skenario Pertama
Sejak puncak wave 3 pada rupiah di level 12.281 (27 Desember 2013), rupiah masih berada di correction wave 4 dengan pola symmetrical triangle. Artinya, hingga 2-3 bulan ke depan, rupiah masih akan konsolidasi di area 11.650—12.110.
Pada skenario ini pula, rupiah untuk shortterm (1—2 minggu) akan menguji area 12.000—12.100 (posisi rupiah terakhir di 11.971) untuk menyelesaikan wave (c) dari wave D. Jika skenario ini yang terjadi, setelah rupiah selesai membentuk wave D, Rupiah akan kembali menguat terhadap dolar AS, menuju level 11.650—11.700-an lagi (target wave E dari wave 4).
Skenario ini hanya akan gagal, jika pada suatu titik, rupiah naik melebihi level 12.110 dengan agresif. Jika rupiah pada akhirnya telanjur naik ke atas 12.110 sebelum mencapai 11.700, skenario yang terjadi adalah skenario kedua.
Skenario Kedua
Jika rupiah naik agresif ke atas level 12.110, rupiah mengkonfirmasi terbentuknya skenario kedua. Rupiah akan terus melemah menuju level 12.281 kembali untuk menyelesaikan wave (iii) dari wave dari wave 5. Ini adalah skenario terburuk.
Saat ini, belum ada satupun fundamental makro Indonesia yang nantinya dapat merasionalisasi skenario ini. Jika skenario ini yang terjadi, bukan tidak mungkin rupiah akan melemah ke level 12.850—13.000 di mana area ini menjadi target ideal dari wave dari wave 5.
Untuk target wave 5 sendiri seharusnya berada di atas 14.000. Mengingat wave 3 sendiri terbentuk selama lebih dari setahun, sehingga kami estimasikan bahwa wave 5 sendiri baru selesai terbentuk paling tidak semester dua 2015.
Dari faktor ekonomi makro Indonesia sendiri, kondisi current account deficit pada kuartal II/2014 yang naik lagi menjadi 4% terhadap PDB, dan faktor lemahnya ekspor dan impor (masing-masing turun 10%) Indonesia di bulan Juli-meskipun perdagangan surplus.
Menyebabkan neraca perdagangan menjadi rapuh, sehingga membuka peluang bagi rupiah untuk kembali terus melemah. Kondisi ini diperparah dengan pengurangan QE (quantitative easing) Amerika yang akan melambungkan suku bunga atau yield SUN Amerika, sehingga memicu naiknya yield SUN Indonesia pula; mengingat dengan naiknya suku bunga Amerika, investor akan cenderung lebih tertarik kepada SUN Amerika karena dianggap lebih aman. Hal ini semakin mengakibatkan rupiah terus tertekan.sumber;http://market.bisnis.com/read/20140917/93/257962/kurs-rupiahus-analis-buat-2-skenario