RUNNING STRING

Selasa, 31 Maret 2015

Paskah NFP jalan terus,market close....

Diberitahukan kepada seluruh nasabah sehubungan dengan  Good Friday & Easter Holiday,  Maka jam perdagangan untuk  LLG & CFD Spot Silver akan dijadwalkan sebagai berikut:

Kamis, 02 April 2015   Jam perdagangan Normal
Jumat, 03 April 2015
   Pasar perdagangan akan TUTUP
  
Senin, 06 April 2015   Pasar perdagangan akan BUKA pada pukul 06:00 WIB

◊Semua jam perdagangan berdasarkan waktu Jakarta◊

Kamis, 26 Maret 2015

BULL MARKET NOW....



(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk about when Federal Reserve policy makers are going to raise interest rates, they haven’t quite figured out how to do it.
The central bank has had trouble controlling near-term borrowing costs since the 2008 financial crisis and has been experimenting with ways to do so. While its main new tool has enabled the Fed to exert more influence over money-market rates in the past year, strategists from Barclays Plc to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. say the program is too small to prevent rates from falling when officials want them to climb.
At issue is the Fed’s balance sheet, which has ballooned through its bond buying, leaving over $2 trillion in excess reserves in the banking system that may prove to be more difficult to siphon off than in the past. New methods are needed because the federal funds rate, long the central bank’s primary policy instrument, has ceased to be an effective means to guide short-term market rates.
“The likelihood that we are going to get through this without some form of accident is very small,” said James Camp, a fund manager at Eagle Asset Management in St. Petersburg, Florida, that has $31.2 billion in assets. “My concern is that the rate resetting higher is not very elegant and becomes sort of clumsy, with a series of fits and starts.”

Fed Questions

Camp, along with money-market economists such as Lou Crandall of Wrightson ICAP LLC, says the Fed will need to more than triple the use of its main tool, known as the reverse-repo program, to at least $1 trillion from the current $300 billion per day limit.
The facility is intended to withdraw or neutralize cash outside the banking system. In an overnight reverse repo, the Fed borrows cash from counterparties using securities as collateral. The next day, it returns the cash plus interest to the lender and gets the securities back.
Even though the program should help, Fed officials are wary of an over-dependence on such facilities, seeing the risk that it may cause investors to avoid privately issued securities for the safety of Fed repos in times of turmoil.
“A large and persistent program could have unanticipated and adverse effects,” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said Monday in New York. “In times of stress, demand for the safety and liquidity” provided by reverse repos could exacerbate market disruptions, he said.

Reserves Dilemma

As Fed staffers tinker with the exit apparatus, the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee last week dropped a commitment to be “patient” before raising rates, opening the door to a rise as early as June. The market sees a move later in 2015, given officials also lowered their estimates for the path of the funds rate over coming years.
In the past, the Fed increased the cost of overnight bank borrowing by raising the funds rate. The trillions of dollars in excess reserves that exist, compared with a few billion at the start of 2007, have obviated the need for banks to borrow daily and forced U.S. monetary authorities to come up with ways to influence market rates directly.
It has been evident since 2008, when the Fed gained the ability to pay interest on excess reserves, that the new rate wasn’t anchoring borrowing costs as envisioned. Government-sponsored agencies including regional Federal Home Loan Banks, primary providers of cash in the overnight market, aren’t able to receive such interest, which has enabled the funds rate to drift below IOER, now at 0.25 percent.

Tightening Mechanism

To make matters worse, widespread negative yields abroad, and heightened regulation on banks and money funds, have sapped the supply of safe short-term assets and buoyed demand. That further casts doubt on whether a tightening of policy will be smooth.
Strategists have expressed concern that, when the Fed starts to tighten policy by raising IOER, other market rates may not follow, leaving monetary conditions too accommodative. While banks receiving interest on surplus reserves have dimmed their desire to dump excess cash into the money markets, the funds rate has still consistently traded below the IOER. The reverse repo program thus far has helped provide a floor for the funds rate.
“Especially in the initial stage of a Fed liftoff, they are particularly concerned about fed funds sag, which is the effective slipping below the reverse repo rate,” said Joseph Abate, a strategist at Barclays. “That would wind up hurting them in terms of credibility as it would look like the Fed is struggling to raise interest rates. Overall, you are going to get a lot more volatility in markets.”

Other Options

Through reverse repos, the Fed aims to set a floor for short-term rates by temporarily pulling cash from the system with a wider array of counterparties that includes money-market mutual funds, its 22 primary dealers and government-sponsored agencies. Daily cash is removed through the transactions, at a fixed rate now at 0.05 percent, with Treasuries used as collateral.
The central bank envisions the fed funds effective rate, which averaged 0.12 percent this year, floating between the reverse repo rate and IOER. Last year the rate averaged 0.09 percent.
“It will take somewhat greater use of the Fed’s tools to get the funds rate into the middle of a 25 to 50 basis-point range than it does to keep it in the middle of a 0 to 25 range,” said Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP in Jersey City.
Along with the overnight reverse repos, the Fed plans to use similar agreements that extend beyond one day in times of high demand, such as quarter- and year-end -- as well as term deposits -- as non-traditional weapons to lift rates.
“At this point, I don’t the Fed could achieve their desired end goal of managing other short-term rates when they begin hiking,” said Tyler Tucci, a U.S. government bond strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc’s RBS Securities unit in Stamford, Connecticut, a primary dealer.sumber; http://www.bloomberg.com/

Senin, 23 Maret 2015

BUY LIMIT TO MAXIMUM PROFIT TODAY...

garis biru support kuat 1165.00 ATAU buy 1188.00 (high jum'at lalu).

Jadwal ECB

Monday, 23 March 2015
Board member: Mario Draghi
Event: Introductory statement by the President at the Quarterly Hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) of the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.
Time: 3 p.m. CET
Venue: European Parliament, Room JAN 6Q2, Brussels
Contact number: Peter Ehrlich, ECB Global Media Relations, Tel: +49 69 1344 8320, e-mail: Peter.Ehrlich@ecb.europa.eu
Text: The text will be made available on the ECB's website after delivery. sumber; http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/weekly/html/index.en.html 

Kamis, 19 Maret 2015

Blog Visitors This Month

Keren abis....

US hike rates as early as JUNE...

The Federal Reserve dropped an assurance it will be “patient” in raising interest rates, ending an era in its communications policy and opening the door for higher borrowing costs as early as June.
“An increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April” meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement Wednesday in Washington. The panel said it will be appropriate to tighten “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.”
Chair Janet Yellen is preparing for an exit from the most aggressive easing in the Fed’s 100-year history as the job market overcomes the damage wrought by the deepest recession since the 1930s. At the same time, inflation and wage growth that remain too low are giving her reasons for caution.
Dropping the pledge to be “patient” marks a shift away from the explicit guidance on the future path of policy that the Fed has used since late 2008 to keep longer-term borrowing costs low. The Fed will now set policy at each meeting based on the latest economic data, making its actions less predictable.
The Fed repeated that it sees “strong job gains” and that labor-market conditions have “improved further.”
Still, the committee lowered its assessment of the economy, saying growth has “moderated somewhat.” In January, it said the economy was “expanding at a solid pace.” Export growth has weakened and the housing recovery remains slow, according to this month’s statement.

Two Meetings

Yellen has said the promise to be “patient” means the FOMC would probably wait at least two meetings before raising rates. She will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Washington. The next FOMC meetings are scheduled for April and June.
The Fed is preparing to tighten even as stagnant growth elsewhere prompts central banks in Europe, China and Japan to ease policy. That has put upward pressure on the dollar, which has jumped more than 4 percent since Fed policy makers last met on Jan. 28, posing a potential headwind to growth as American exports become more expensive.
Fed officials confront conflicting signals from their dual mandates for full employment and price stability as they weigh when to tighten policy for the first time since June 2006.

Job Gains

Surging job gains pushed unemployment down to 5.5 percent in February, the lowest level in almost seven years, suggesting the economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs.
Payroll gains have averaged more than 200,000 workers for 12 straight months, the longest streak of such increases since March 1995.
“No matter how you cut the cake, you still have an economy running above trend,” said Bricklin Dwyer, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. Absent a threat of deflation, “the economy can handle higher rates.”
Among companies boosting payrolls is Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific Corp. The largest publicly traded railroad in North America plans to hire about 5,700 employees this year amid an improving economy, Chief Financial Officer Rob Knight said this month in an investor conference.
“That’s a big number,” Knight said. “A lot of those are high-paying union jobs, so these are very good jobs in our industry.”
The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the three months ended December after a 5 percent jump in the third quarter that was the biggest in 11 years.
Even so, recent data on housing, industrial production and consumer spending have been weaker than forecast, prompting some economists to mark down their estimates for growth this quarter.
Inflation and wage growth also haven’t been as strong as many Fed officials would like, suggesting that there’s more slack left in the economy than low unemployment alone suggest.
Prices as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge rose just 0.2 percent in January from a year earlier, and inflation has languished below the central bank’s 2 percent goal for 33 straight months.
Yellen last month said it would be appropriate to raise rates if the labor market continues to improve and officials are “reasonably confident” that inflation will move back up toward their goal.
Low inflation expectations are depressing 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a 20-month low of 1.64 percent in January. The yield was at 2.05 percent late yesterday.
One reason for declining inflation: the plunge in oil prices. That gives Fed officials reason to believe consumer prices will recover as the impact of cheaper oil dissipates.
Bond investors aren’t buying that argument. Traders are betting prices will rise at a 1.37 percent annual rate over the next five years, down from a 1.67 percent estimate on March 3, according to break-even rates on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
Wages present more of a puzzle. Average hourly earnings rose 2 percent in February from a year earlier, matching the average since the end of the recession in June 2009.
Eighty nine-percent of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month forecast that the Fed would drop “patient” from its statement. Sixty-nine percent predicted the phrase would be replaced by some other form of guidance.
In December, the FOMC dropped a clause from its statement that it would hold rates low for a “considerable time” and instead said it would be “patient” in weighing an increase.
for more detail,visit ;  http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150318a.htm

Selasa, 17 Maret 2015

TURNING POINT OF LOCO BEGAN....



The Fed could put the brakes on the dollar rally

This week, the key event for currency traders is Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement, where the Fed will either include or strike the word "patient" in its guidance. If it does the latter, the central bank would technically be open to raising rates as soon as June.
Still, not everyone suggests being long dollars in the event.
"I am long-term bullish dollars, but I think the Fed is going to put the brakes on the dollar next week," said Kathy Lien, managing director of FX Strategy with BK Asset Management. "The speed and velocity of the recent moves brings back the risk of disinflation.".sumber; http://www.cnbc.com/id/102504711

Kamis, 12 Maret 2015

Result bank stress

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/20150311a.htm

LOCO TERJUN LAGI....


Jika kuat ke 1178.00 sell on the rally....namun gejala cuma kuat ke 1159.00 aja udah ambrol lagi ke 1132.00lalu jika tembus 1131.50 turun lebih dalam ke 1100.00

CARICATURES